
Wind
Why is wind power important?
Onshore wind is a proven, mature technology with an extensive global supply chain. Onshore wind has evolved over the last five years to maximise electricity produced per megawatt capacity installed to unlock more sites with lower wind speeds. Wind turbines have become bigger with taller hub heights, and larger rotor diameters. Offshore wind is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years as deploying turbines at sea takes advantage of stronger winds.
What is the role of wind power in clean energy transitions?
Wind and solar are the predominant sources of power generation in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, but annual wind capacity additions until 2030 need to increase significantly to be on track with the Net Zero pathway.
Where do we need to go?
Reaching the levels of annual wind electricity generation foreseen in the Net Zero Scenario will require increased support for both onshore and offshore farms. Efforts should be focused on facilitating permitting, gaining public support, supporting the identification of suitable sites, decreasing costs and reducing project development timelines.
Tracking Wind Electricity
In 2023 wind electricity generation increased by 216 TWh (up 10%), reaching more than 2330 TWh. This was the second highest growth among all renewable power technologies, behind solar PV. However, to get on track with the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario, which envisages approximately 7 100 TWh of wind electricity generation in 2030, the average annual generation growth rate needs to increase to about 17%. Achieving this will require increasing annual capacity additions from about 115 GW in 2023 to 340 GW in 2030. Far greater policy and private-sector efforts are needed to achieve this level of capacity growth, with the most important areas for improvement being facilitating permitting for onshore wind and cost reductions for offshore wind.
China was responsible for two-thirds of global wind power capacity additions in 2023
China was responsible for two-thirds of global wind power capacity additions in 2023
Countries and regions making notable progress to advance wind electricity include:
- China continues to lead in terms of wind capacity additions, with 76 GW added in 2023, including 5 GW in offshore farms. The 14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy, announced in 2022, provides ambitious targets for renewable energy deployment, which should drive further deployment in the coming years.
- The European Union is accelerating wind deployment in response to the energy crisis, with 15 GW added in 2023. New policies and targets proposed in the REPowerEU Plan, The Green Deal Industrial Plan, European Wind Energy Action Plan, and a communication on delivering on the offshore wind strategy are expected to be important drivers of wind power investment.
- The United States included generous new funding for wind power in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) introduced in 2022. Investment and production tax credits will boost capacity deployment in the medium term. In 2024, the first large-scale offshore wind farms on the American continent are expected to come online on the East Coast of the United States.
Wind annual generation growth needs to more than quadruple by 2030 to get on the NZE Scenario trajectory
Wind annual generation growth needs to more than quadruple by 2030 to get on the NZE Scenario trajectory
Wind power generation in the Net Zero Scenario, 2015-2030
OpenThe amount of electricity generated by wind increased by 216 TWh in 2023 (up 10%), the second largest growth of all power generation technologies. Wind remains the leading non-hydro renewable technology, generating over 2 330 TWh in 2023, almost as much as all the others combined.
China was responsible for almost 60% of wind generation growth in 2023, followed by the European Union at 26%. Generation in the United States stagnated in 2023, due to relatively low wind conditions.
Global wind capacity additions have rebounded in 2023 after two years of slowdown, reaching a record level, which is expected to result in higher generation growth in 2024.
Aligning with the wind power generation level of about 7 100 TWh in 2030 envisaged by the NZE Scenario calls for average expansion of approximately 17% per year during 2024-2030. Policy support and market conditions for wind power are increasing in major markets such as China, India, the European Union and the United States, but much greater efforts are needed to get on a pathway consistent with the NZE Scenario.
Onshore technology continues to dominate wind capacity growth, but offshore is increasing its share
Onshore technology continues to dominate wind capacity growth, but offshore is increasing its share
Wind power capacity in the Net Zero Scenario, 2015-2030
OpenIn 2023, of the total 1015 GW of wind capacity installed, 93% was in onshore systems, with the remaining 7% in offshore wind farms. Onshore wind is a developed technology, present in 115 countries around the world, while offshore wind is at the early stage of expansion, with capacity present in just 21 countries. Offshore reach is expected to increase in the coming years as more countries are developing or planning to develop their first offshore wind farms. In 2023, 9% of total wind capacity growth of 116 GW was delivered by offshore technology.
Global wind capacity additions in 2023 were over 50% higher than in 2022, reaching a record level. The increase resulted mostly from doubling of deployment in China due to improving competitiveness of wind power. Wind capacity additions are expected to further accelerate in the following years, driven by increased policy support in the United States and the European Union, and policy targets and high economic competitiveness in China. Offshore deployment is also expected to accelerate in existing markets, such as the European Union, the United Kingdom and China, as well as to enter new markets such as the United States, Japan, Korea and Poland.
Getting on track with annual wind electricity generation of about 7 100 TWh in 2030, as envisaged under the NZE Scenario, will require increased support for both onshore and offshore installations. Efforts should be focused on facilitating permitting, supporting the identification of suitable sites, decreasing costs and reducing project development timelines.
Wind equipment manufacturing continues to expand slowly – an acceleration is needed to keep pace with expected demand under the Net Zero Scenario
Wind equipment manufacturing continues to expand slowly – an acceleration is needed to keep pace with expected demand under the Net Zero Scenario
In 2023, manufacturing capacity for the main wind power components (nacelles, towers and blades) reached 170-180 GW. According to announced expansion plans, global production capabilities are expected to increase in line with anticipated demand in the next 3 years, resulting in approximately 205 GW for towers, 225 GW for blades and 260 GW for nacelles. China is expected to remain the largest manufacturing hub for all main wind energy components in the medium term, with 50-70% share of global capacity.
Realisation of announced projects would bring global wind manufacturing capacity to only about 60% of what is required in 2030 to meet demand envisaged in the NZE Scenario. A rapid increase in co-ordinated efforts from both government and private stakeholders is needed to accelerate wind power deployment and manufacturing capacity investments.
Wind power technology development continues to focus on increasing productivity and lowering costs
Wind power technology development continues to focus on increasing productivity and lowering costs
Wind technology innovation is focused on increasing the productivity of turbines, especially in areas with low wind conditions, by developing turbines with longer blades and higher towers. However, the maximum height of onshore wind turbines is often restricted in certain regions for environmental and public acceptance reasons, which limits the scope of possible innovation.
In the offshore wind segment, in contrast, there is no such size restriction; innovation is therefore focused on designing larger turbines, which allow reductions in the overall cost of power generation. In parallel, the development of cost-competitive and safe floating offshore wind turbines is accelerating. Floating wind farms could unblock the vast potential of ocean areas with a water depth too great for fixed turbines and they could be a vital energy transition tool. Deep, relatively near-shore areas in France, Japan, Korea, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom and the west coast of the United States are expected to be the first to see large-scale deployment of this technology.
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Policy support continues to be the main driver of wind power deployment
Policy support continues to be the main driver of wind power deployment
Policy support remains the principal driver of wind deployment in the majority of the world. Various types of policy are driving capacity growth, including auctions, feed-in tariffs, contracts for difference and renewable energy portfolio standards. The following important policy changes and targets affecting the growth of wind energy have been implemented in the past couple of years:
- China published its 14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy in June 2022, which includes an ambitious target of 33% of electricity generation to come from renewables by 2025 (up from about 29% in 2021), including an 18% target for wind and solar technologies.
- In August 2022 the federal government of the United States introduced the IRA, which significantly expands support for renewable energy in the next ten years through tax credits and other measures.
- In May 2022 the European Commission proposed to increase the European Union’s renewable energy target for 2030 to 45% as part of the REPowerEU Plan. In February 2023 the Commission announced The Green Deal Industrial Plan, aiming to support the expansion of clean energy technology manufacturing, including wind power. In another positive development, in April 2023 nine European countries announced plans to significantly accelerate offshore wind deployment and increase installed power capacity from 30 GW in 2022 to over 120 GW by 2030 and over 300 GW by 2050. European Wind Power Action Plan and a communication on delivering on the EU offshore wind renewable energy ambitions, announced in October 2023, set important guidelines on developing policies aimed at accelerating wind deployment in EU Member States.
- During COP26, held in November 2021, India announced new 2030 targets of 500 GW of total non-fossil power capacity and a 50% renewable electricity generation share (more than double the 22% share in 2020), as well as net zero emissions by 2070.
View all wind power policies
Wind power investments reached around USD 180 billion in 2023, the second largest of power generation technologies
Wind power investments reached around USD 180 billion in 2023, the second largest of power generation technologies
Investment in wind generation increased by 20% in 2023, supporting the expectations of accelerating capacity deployment in the coming years. Investment reached a record USD 180 billion, the second largest among all power generation technologies (behind solar PV), and this is expected to grow further in the coming years thanks to ambitious government targets, policy support and high competitiveness.
Wind power is a part of all major renewable power collaboration programmes
Wind power is a part of all major renewable power collaboration programmes
Beyond global renewable energy initiatives that include wind (see Renewables page), there are numerous international organisations, collaboration programmes, groups and initiatives aimed at accelerating wind power growth around the world, including:
- The IEA Wind Energy Systems Technology Collaboration Programme, which provides an information platform for participating governments and industry leaders on co-operative R&D efforts to reduce the cost of wind energy technologies, increase transmission and power system flexibility, and raise social acceptance of wind energy projects.
Private-sector activity remains a modest driver of wind power deployment
Private-sector activity remains a modest driver of wind power deployment
The main activity of the private sector in wind power deployment is entering into corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) – signing direct contracts with wind power plant operators for the purchase of generated electricity. In 2022 wind farms were responsible for 30% of all renewable capacity contracted in PPAs.
Recommendations
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Lengthy and complicated permitting processes are one of the main challenges to faster deployment of wind power plants in many parts of the world, especially in Europe. Establishing administrative “one-stop shops”, developing clear rules and pathways for developers applying for a construction permit, determining strict timeframes for application processing, and public-sector engagement in the identification of land and sea sites for investment could significantly accelerate capacity growth.
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Floating turbines offer the opportunity to tap into the richest offshore wind resources located in water depths exceeding 50-60 m, where seabed-fixed foundations are not practical. Floating foundations may also be attractive for mid-depth projects where the possibility of using standardised floating foundation designs could avoid the need for expensive, heavy-lifting vessels. Increasing funding for R&D activities, setting deployment targets and de-risking investment in the first commercial projects are required to accelerate full-scale roll-out of this promising technology.
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Wind power generation creates well-known challenges for electricity grids and power systems through its variability and uncertainty and distributed nature. Wind power plants in many cases entail upgrades that contribute to their integration in the grid, but this contribution will need to be ramped up to align with the NZE Scenario through a combination of updated regulation and grid codes, and more innovative solutions for providing ancillary services and other services related to dispatchability.
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Wind farm planning, both onshore and offshore, will require enhanced sensitivity assessment of the surrounding environment to ensure long-term turbine efficiency and attractive returns on investment. Public involvement in the identification of suitable sites for investment and the creation of clear maritime development plans could significantly accelerate the project development process and lead to faster capacity growth.
Programmes and partnerships
Wind will grow faster than over the previous five years
Onshore wind additions increase in our main-case forecast, from 74 GW in 2021 to 109 GW in 2027. Onshore wind additions are climbing most quickly in countries that have stable policy frameworks providing long-term revenue certainty, policies that address permitting challenges and plans for timely grid expansion. However, just a small number of countries, including China, Germany and Spain, have so far made improvements in all three areas.
Authors and contributors
Lead authors
Piotr Bojek